Following several rounds of bad news for Romney, things have settled out a bit in the past week just before the first debate tomorrow night. As a result, in comparison to last week in which there were virtually no “toss-up” states on the map, this week there are several. However, even with the toss-up states in play, Obama is still currently leading the electoral college count with enough votes to win re-election. Here’s the map as it stands now:
As in weeks past, here is our rubric (based on recent polling):
- Candidate has 20 pt or greater lead in a state: “Solid”
- Candidate has between 10 and 20 pt lead in a state: “Likely”
- Candidate has between a 5 and 10 pt lead in a state: “Leans”
- Candidates are polling within 5 points of one another in a state: “toss up”
Taking into consideration long term trends, here is our best guess at what the map would look like if the election were held today:
In this analysis, the only state that truly registers as a “toss-up” is North Carolina, where polling is showing a virtual tie. In all the other “toss-up” states Obama has consistently shown slight leads.
Next week we should see something of the impact of the first presidential debate.
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