If the Election Were Held Today, 10-2-12

Following several rounds of bad news for Romney, things have settled out a bit in the past week just before the first debate tomorrow night.  As a result, in comparison to last week in which there were virtually no “toss-up” states on the map, this week there are several.  However, even with the toss-up states in play, Obama is still currently leading the electoral college count with enough votes to win re-election.  Here’s the map as it stands now:

As in weeks past, here is our rubric (based on recent polling):

  • Candidate has 20 pt or greater lead in a state:  “Solid”
  • Candidate has between 10 and 20 pt lead in a state:  “Likely”
  • Candidate has between a 5 and 10 pt lead in a state:  “Leans”
  • Candidates are polling within 5 points of one another in a state:  “toss up”

Taking into consideration long term trends, here is our best guess at what the map would look like if the election were held today:

In this analysis, the only state that truly registers as a “toss-up” is North Carolina, where polling is showing a virtual tie.  In all the other “toss-up” states Obama has consistently shown slight leads.

Next week we should see something of the impact of the first presidential debate.

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