Electoral College Predictions

The election is tomorrow!  Which means today is the last day for annoying political ads!!

Three maps to share today.  First, here is where the electoral college stands leaving out states in which the two candidates are polling within five points of one another (toss-up states):

Second, here is the map taking into account longer trends and recent momentum but leaving out the four closest states, which gives an idea of what possible scenarios might exist for the final outcome of tomorrow’s voting:

Finally, here is my prediction of what the map will look like after the votes are counted tomorrow night:

The rubric for this map is:

  • States where a candidate is expected to win by more than 20 points:  Safe
  • States where a candidate is expected to win by between 10 and 20 points:  Likely
  • States where a candidate is expected to win by less than 10 points:  Leaning

I’m also predicting that:

  • Obama narrowly wins the popular vote (50-49)
  • The Democrats retain control of the Senate
  • Republicans retain control of the House, but by a narrower margin

Wednesday I will put up a comparison of this map with the actual results.  In the meantime, would love to hear your predictions:  Who is going to win?  What will the final outcome of the electoral college be?  Which party will control the Senate?  What about the House?  Will the winner of the electoral college also win the popular vote?

Go vote!

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