If the Election Were Held Today, August 28:

So here is this week’s installment of “If the Election Were Held Today.”  The map reflects more of the impact of Romney choosing Ryan as a running mate (Montana is now more surely Romney country, for instance) but also reflects the fallout of the controversy regarding Congressman Akin’s remarks about rape and abortion (Missouri is now back in the “toss up” column).  Also, Ryan so far hasn’t moved Wisconsin into the Romney column, it’s still a toss up with Obama still claiming a slight edge is recent polls.  The continued slow economic recovery is probably behind Michigan moving back into the “toss up” column, though Obama still maintains a slight edge there as well.  Here is the map:


As before, our rubric is as follows:

  • Candidate has 20 pt or greater lead in a state:  ”Solid”
  • Candidate has between 10 and 20 pt lead in a state:  ”Likely”
  • Candidate has between a 5 and 10 pt lead in a state:  ”Leans”
  • Candidates are polling within 5 points of one another in a state:  ”toss up” or “too close to call.”

Of the toss up states, Iowa, Missouri, and North Carolina show Romney with a slight edge.  Obama has a slight edge is all other states.  If the election were held today and those numbers panned out, Obama would win the electoral college 326 to 212.

Next week should show some of the impact of the Republican National Convention.  As always, polls trail news, so they aren’t really real time indicators.  But its the best we got, so we go with it…


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